Newfound market calm awaits tests for turbulence

Markets looked a whole lot more placid on Monday, a week after equities plunged and volatility measures spiked, but intensifying geopolitical tensions and looming economic data threaten to disrupt the relative calm.

The US benchmark S&P 500 ended virtually unchanged on the day, as gains in Nvidia and other tech stocks offset declines in most other sectors. The index is now down 5.7% from its July all-time high, recovering after being down 8.5% from its peak a week ago. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe also was little changed on Monday.

The Cboe volatility index was last at 20.71 points, falling during the session to its lowest point since the start of the month. The VIX a week ago logged its largest-ever intraday jump and closed at over 38 points, its highest closing level since October 2020.

Part of Monday’s calm may have stemmed from a market holiday in Japan, with the country’s Nikkei index and yen currency at the center of the latest global storm in markets.

But investors were looking ahead: Wednesday’s US consumer price index report will give a crucial read on inflation with markets now worried that an overly depressed CPI number will fan fears of a downturn. A weaker-than-expected jobs report was one of the catalysts for the recent market selloff, as some investors suspect the Fed may be too late in cutting interest rates.

Tuesday’s report on US producer prices provides an inflation-data appetizer ahead of Wednesday’s main course.

Inflation also was top of mind in India, where data on Monday showed retail inflation fell in July to a near five-year low.

Tensions in the Middle East were keeping markets edgy. The US Defense Department said over the weekend it had ordered the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the Middle East as the region braces for possible attacks by Iran and its allies after the killing of senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Oil prices jumped on Monday, with US crude settling up over 4%, on concerns the conflict would tighten global crude supplies. The US presidential race was also a focus.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Singapore GDP (Q2)

– Japan corporate goods price index (July)

– US producer price index (July)

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf)