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Year in Review: On inflation, interest rates, sector performance
The scourge of inflation has fueled rising interest rates in 2023. The impact of these developments has resulted in different outcomes for various sectors.
By Anna Cudia, Sophia Bonifacio, Ariz Marcelino, and Dominique Ravelas
The denouement of various policy decisions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the US Federal Reserve, as well as the behavior of consumers and investors, has yet to unfold on the theater of local and global financial markets.
In our report, which we titled “2023 in review: The rage of inflation”, we assess the events that transpired in 2023 and our outlook for both the Philippines and the US.
We also present our sector reviews. For banks, net interest margins soared, but loan growth has slowed. Food, beverage, and tobacco buckled as a result of a decline in household consumption. Risk from El Niño looms.
Not much has changed for real estate, though rate cuts may boost the sector next year. Retail has been saddled by weak demand, but the possibility of expansion when rate cuts come around offer some hope.
Sluggish growth in telecommunications left investors wondering what’s next for the sector. Is it going to be enterprise, e-wallets, and other non-telco businesses?
Finally, the earnings of utility companies remained positive. The threat of El Niño and the tight energy supply will likely push spot prices up, which bodes well for the sector.
Download our full report below.
2023 in review: The rage of inflation
To help you plan for 2024, we have prepared an assessment of events this year and our outlook for various sectors.
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ANNA DOMINIQUE CUDIA, MBA, CSS, is the Head of Markets Research at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, spearheading the generation and presentation of financial markets insights to internal and external clients. She used to be with Metrobank’s Investor Relations, where she brought in international awards and took part in various multi-billion peso and dollar capital raising activities. She has a Master of Business Administration (Finance) degree, with distinction, from the University of London, and a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration degree, cum laude, from the University of the Philippines. She also passed the CFA Level I exam and is a Licensed Fixed Income Market Salesman (FIMS), a Certified UITF Sales Person (CUSP) and a Certified Securities Specialist (CSS). She is a naturally curious person and likes to travel here and abroad.
SOPHIA THERESE “PIA” BONIFACIO is a Research Officer at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, covering local and offshore macroeconomic research. She obtained her Bachelor’s degree in Economics with a Specialization in Financial Economics, cum laude, from the Ateneo de Manila University and is a Certified UITF Sales Person (CUSP). On the daily, Pia spends her time with her best friend – a 9-year-old Chow Chow named Yao Ming.
ARIZ MARCELINO is a Research Officer at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, covering local and offshore equities. He earned his degree in Banking and Finance from New Era University and successfully passed the CFA Level 1 exam. He is also a certified UITF Sales Person and a Financial Modeling and Valuation Analyst. When not at work, Ariz unwinds by watching popular sitcoms and anime while sipping a cup of hot matcha latte.
DOMINIQUE “NICA” RAVELAS is a Research Officer at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, specializing in macroeconomic research. She is formerly a sales trader under Luzon International Sales Desk. She holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration major in Financial Management from Far Eastern University-Makati where she was awarded as one of the Top Outstanding Senior Students (TOSS). Beyond her academic and professional pursuits, Nica enjoys shopping, traveling, and watching sunsets by the beach.