Stock Market Weekly: Feeling the GDP pulse

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

After nearing overbought levels, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended its four-week winning streak, spending most of the week in negative territory and closing at 6,333.26 (-131.41 points), down 2.03% week-on-week.

With no strong local catalysts, investors locked in gains amid heightened global volatility.

Early in the week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose fresh tariffs on select European countries opposing US influence over Greenland.

Losses were later pared as Trump withdrew the tariff threats during discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, while sentiment improved on the back of a stronger US GDP final reading and October-November 2025 PCE data that aligned with market expectations.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, the market is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward bias as investors await the Philippines’ full year 2025 and 4Q 2025 GDP results, which are projected to fall below the government’s 5.5–6.5% target range.

Sentiment may also soften after Trump warned of a potential 100% tariff on Canadian goods should Canada pursue a trade agreement with China.

Meanwhile, investors will likewise monitor the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.

Domestically, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr.’s view that the peso is unlikely to approach PHP 60 per US dollar in the near term may provide some currency-related relief.

Resistance: 6,450/6,500

Support: 6,250/6,300

ANALYSIS

The PSEi fell -2.03% week-on-week (w/w), closing at 6,333.26 (-131.41 points), and is currently moving within a descending channel, while the MACD has crossed over the signal line, which reflects bearish momentum.

Although the index is still currently trending above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (MA), it shows strong support from the 20-day MA.

The RSI is also entering oversold signals, thus indicating a potential rebound around the 6,250 and 6,300 levels. Furthermore, the trend has shown higher highs and lows, which indicates a strong uptrend pattern.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 300.00

Right now, Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC) makes about 75% of its operating profit from the Philippines, while its international business contributes around 25% but still loses money overall.

The planned spin-off would boost JFC Philippines’ earnings immediately because it removes the drag from overseas losses.

Accumulating once JFC breaks out of its 200-day MA at PHP 217.08 is advised, to confirm strong bullish momentum. Take profits at PHP 238.70, and set a stop loss limit at PHP 206.20.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (BLOOM) | BUY | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 5.00

Historically, Chinese visitors have been a major driver of VIP gross gaming revenues (GGR) at integrated resorts through junket networks, and the simplified short-stay travel process could accelerate the return of premium Chinese players.

We also note early signs of improving market sentiment, with trading volumes beginning to pick up, potentially signaling renewed investor interest.

Accumulating on current levels at the 50-day MA around PHP 2.75–2.85 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 3.10 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 2.55.

Emperador Inc. (EMI) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 18.90

The affordable premium Fundador Super Special surged 40–50% in 3Q volume growth by appealing to value-conscious consumers, while CLVB EMPI, aimed at Gen Z, has drawn strong demand and retail orders since its March 2025 soft launch.

We expect sustained volume recovery and an enhanced product mix within the segment, supporting margin expansion.

Accumulating EMI once it breaks above its resistance at PHP 16.15 with strong volume is advised. Take profits at PHP 17.7 and set stop loss limits below PHP 15.3.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Balance of Trade for December 2025 on Tuesday, January 27, 2026 (previous: USD 3.51 billion)

2. PH Imports year-on-year (y/y) for December 2025 on Tuesday, January 27, 2026 (previous: 2%)

3. PH Exports y/y for December 2025 on Tuesday, January 27, 2026 (previous: 21.3%)

4. US Fed Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (estimates: 3.75%; previous: 3.75%)

5. PH GDP quarter-on-quarter (q/q) on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (previous: 0.4%)

6. PH GDP y/y on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (previous: 4%)

7. US Balance of Trade for November 2025 on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (estimates: USD -44.6 billion; prev.: USD -29.4 billion)

8. US Exports for November 2025 on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (previous: USD 302 billion)

9. US Imports for November 2025 on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (previous: USD 331.4 billion)

10. US Initial Jobless Claims for January 2026 on Thursday, January 29, 2026 (estimates: 205K; previous: 200K)

11. PH Producers Price Index (PPI) y/y for December 2025 on Friday, January 30, 2026 (previous: 0.1%)

12. US PPI y/y for December 2025 on Friday, January 30, 2026 (previous: 150.71)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)