Stock Market Weekly: Upward momentum likely

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 3.47% week-on-week (w/w) in the first full trading week of 2026, closing at 6,348.14 (+213.08 points), reflecting sustained bullish sentiment amid favorable domestic data releases.

Key catalysts included an improvement in the November 2025 unemployment rate to 4.4% (October: 5.0) and full year 2025 inflation cooling to 1.7%, below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP’s) 2 4% target range. Meanwhile, despite peso weakness depreciating to a record low of PHP 59.4 and BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr.’s cautious remarks on potential sub-4% GDP growth in 4Q 2025, net foreign buying remained resilient at PHP 2.16 billion. Geopolitical noise around the US intervention in Venezuela was largely shrugged off by the market, albeit this has raised concerns of potential retaliation by China and Russia.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the PSEi to sustain its upward trajectory this week, supported by bullish early-year seasonality through January to February. With the lack of domestic catalysts, the market will shift its attention towards foreign data releases and news, such as US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US Producers Price Index (PPI), and several US Fed speeches. However, we remain cognizant of the psychological 60 level of the USD/PHP. A decisive break higher could trigger accelerated depreciation pressure, potentially reversing the near-term bullish mood of the market.

Resistance: 6,550/6,600

Support: 6,250/6,150

ANALYSIS

The PSEi rose 3.5% w/w, closing at 6,348.14 (+213.1 points). The index broke out from a reverse head and shoulders pattern, reflecting a sustained uptrend in the medium-term. It recently crossed above the 200-day moving average, which has shown strong resistance in historic trends. Meanwhile, RSI has entered overbought levels, with the MACD holding above the signal line, suggesting strong upward momentum.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

MREIT, Inc. (MREIT) BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 16

While the transaction will increase MREIT’s exposure to the office segment, where the outlook remains challenging, particularly amid reshoring risks in the BPO industry, the near term impact is likely to be manageable given MREIT’s above industry occupancy levels at 91.6%, providing a buffer against sector headwinds. Accumulating MREIT once it pulls back around PHP 13.80 is advisable. Take profits around PHP 15.18 and set the stop loss limit below PHP 13.11.

Nickel Asia Corp. (NIKL) | BUY |FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 4.35

As the largest nickel mining company in the country, Nickel Asia Corp. (NIKL) is set to benefit from rising nickel prices, with over 95% of revenues coming PSEi Top Gainers / Losers NIKL PHP 17.3 PHP 4.23 Last price PHP 15.18 MREIT PHP 13.86 Last price PHP 42.13 CNPF PHP 39.90 Last price from nickel exports. Moreover, as an exporter, the business is naturally hedged against a weak peso, amplifying revenues should global metal prices continue to rise.

Accumulating NIKL at current levels around PHP 3.80 is advised. Take profits once the stock hits PHP 4.35 and set the stop loss level below PHP 3.48.

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 44.00

CNPF is likely to achieve its targets, supported by lower rice prices, which declined 10.6% year-on-year (y/y) in early December 2025, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). This allows households to allocate more budget for other food products or viands. Additionally, seasonal holidays are expected to drive strong demand for branded goods and sustain OEM recovery through year-end. These position the company to deliver on its updated guidance and maintain growth momentum into early 2026. Accumulating CNPF once it pulls back around PHP 38.30 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 42.13 and set the stop loss limit at PHP 36.39.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Foreign Direct Investment for October on Monday, January 12, 2026 (previous: USD 0.3 billion)

2. US Inflation rate y/y for December on Tuesday, December 13, 2026 (estimates: 2.7%; previous: 2.7%)

3. US PPI month-on-month (m/m) for October on Wednesday, January 14, 2026 (estimates: 0.3%; previous: 0.3%)

4. US PPI m/m for November on Wednesday, January 14, 2026 (estimates: 0.4%)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)