Stock Market Weekly: Continued bargain hunting and optimism

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended the two-day trading week at 6,135.06 (+1.14%, up by 69.42 points).

On the final session of 2025, the index traded mostly in positive territory as selective value buying lifted sentiment. Toward the close, year-end defensive moves weighed on sentiment, trimming gains and nudging the market into the red.

As 2026 began, the Philippine equity market opened with a cautiously optimistic tone. The index stayed mostly in the green, supported by bargain-hunting activity, though trading remained measured as investors gradually eased back from the holiday break.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we anticipate the local bourse to move sideways with a slight upward bias, supported by continued bargain hunting and optimism over expectations of lower December 2025 inflation print.

On the global stage, the US executed “Operation Absolute Resolve” over the weekend, extracting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, adding a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the global backdrop.

Markets may adopt a more cautious tone in the near term as investors gauge how domestic institutions in Venezuela respond and monitor how neighboring Latin American governments react to what many may view as a precedent-setting US incursion.

For energy markets, the immediate impact appears limited given Venezuela’s current contribution of less than 1% to global oil supply, though its substantial reserves keep longer-term considerations in focus.

Questions around potential shifts in production capacity, as well as the broader legal, diplomatic, and sovereignty implications for the region, may continue to shape sentiment in the near term as the situation unfolds.

Resistance: 6,200/6,300

Support: 6,100/6,000

ANALYSIS

The PSEi rose 1.14% week-on-week (w/w), closing at 6,135.06 (+69.40 points), and forms a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal signal.

The index recently crossed above the 100-day moving average, indicating a potential breakout. This view is supported by RSI trending upward, showing improving momentum, and MACD holding above the signal line, suggesting continued bullish sentiment.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

MREIT, Inc. (MREIT) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 15.10

On technicals, MREIT is consolidating near the PHP 14.15 resistance, showing limited upside momentum. While the price remains above key moving averages, the sideways trend and flattish MACD suggest the stock may lean toward a pullback if weakness persists.

Accumulating MREIT once it pulls back around PHP 13.80 is advisable. Take profits around PHP 15.18 and set stop loss limits below PHP 13.11.

Apex Mining Co., (APX) | Inc. TRAILING STOPS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 15.00

APX has rallied after a sharp pullback last October 2025, trading above key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). While the RSI nears overbought levels at 66, we are wary of the formation of a bearish divergence, signaling a weakening trend.

Thus, in line with our cautious view on gold prices, we prefer to implement trailing stops at current levels to protect gains.

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 41.00

CNPF is consolidating and currently trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (MAs), signaling medium- to long-term strength. However, it remains below the 20-day MA, indicating short-term weakness.

The MACD is also below the signal line, and the RSI is exhibiting bearish momentum, suggesting a potential continuation of near-term weakness. Accumulating CNPF once it pulls back around PHP 38.30 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 42.13 and set stop loss limit at PHP 36.39.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1) US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December 2025 on Monday, January 5, 2026 (previous: 48.2, estimates: 48.3)

2) PH Inflation Rate year-on-year (y/y) for December 2025 on Tuesday, January 6, 2026 (previous: 1.5%; estimates: 1.3%)

3) PH Producers’ Price Index (PPI) y/y for November 2025 on Tuesday, January 6, 2026 (prev.: 0.3%)

4) PH Unemployment Rate for November 2025 on Wednesday, January 7, 2026 (previous: 5.0%)

5) PH Foreign Exchange Reserves for December 2025 on Wednesday, January 7, 2026 (previous: USD111.1 billion)

6) US Non-Farm Payrolls for December 2025 on Friday, January 9, 2026 (previous: 64k; estimates: 57k)

7) US Unemployment Rate for December 2025 on Friday, January 9, 2026 (previous: 4.6%; estimates: 4.5%)

8) PH Foreign Direct Investment for October 2025 on Friday, January 9, 2026 (previous: USD 0.3 billion).

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no