Oil slips as market weighs geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as traders weighed geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals, after the US signaled it might sell the Venezuelan crude it has seized, while Ukraine’s attacks on Russian vessels and piers heightened fears of supply disruption.

Brent crude futures edged lower by 13 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 61.94 per barrel by 0720 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 14 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 57.87 a barrel.

On Monday, prices rose over 2% with Brent posting its best daily performance in two months and WTI climbing the most since November 14.

“Crude oil markets are grinding through the final weeks of 2025 with prices largely subdued, reflecting a tug-of-war between persistent bearish fundamentals and intermittent bullish headlines,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said in a note.

While prices have shown modest rebounds on geopolitical headlines throughout 2025, the broader narrative points to a balance of sluggish demand and oversupply, she said.

“Overall, the trend remains weak as structural supply concerns eclipse short-lived risk-off rallies.”

But markets are cautious as traders weigh the geopolitical risks against forecasts of ample supply in early 2026, leaving prices potentially sensitive to any prolonged disruptions.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the US might keep or sell the oil it had seized off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks, amid his pressure campaign on Venezuela, which includes a “blockade” of oil tankers under sanctions entering and leaving the country.

“It is true that even if Venezuelan oil exports were to fall to zero over the near term, oil markets will likely still be well supplied in H1 26,” Barclays said in a note dated Monday.

However, Barclays estimates the global oil surplus will shrink to just 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a prolonged disruption could tighten the market further, depleting recent inventory builds.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine waged attacks on each other’s facilities on the Black Sea, a vital export route for both countries.

Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa late on Monday and damaged port facilities and a ship, in the second attack on the region in less than 24 hours.

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged two vessels, two piers, and sparked a fire in a village in Russia’s Krasnodar region, regional authorities said on Monday.

Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics, focusing on shadow-fleet oil tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions on Russia over the nearly four-year war.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul, Neil Fullick, and Christian Schmollinger)