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2026 Outlook: Moderate recovery on the horizon
The events of 2025 presented a challenge for the Philippine economy. The setback may be a setup for a comeback beginning 2026.
By Metrobank Research
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We are now at the tail end of 2025, a year that started with market jitters on policy changes in the US and their impact to the global landscape. At that time, there was optimism for the Philippines, which, we perceived, will be cushioned from a gloomy global outlook. However, things turned around towards year-end.
The US government shutdown inflicted some irreversible impact on the US economy. However, as US President Donald Trump’s massive tariffs calmed down, and the US Fed is foreseen to deliver further policy rate cuts, the outlook for the US is turning more positive. We may be looking at better economic conditions in the US and even a stronger dollar in 2026.
For the local landscape, weak economic conditions added to the global headwinds. Towards the latter half of the year, the peso
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