Stock Market Weekly: Expect the market to trend lower 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The main index struggled throughout the week, sliding 3.04% week-on-week (w/w) to 5,584.35 and erasing 175.05 points as investors grappled with weak domestic fundamentals and heightened political concerns. Early losses were driven by disappointing 3Q 2025 GDP growth and soft corporate earnings, compounded by regional risk after reports of China advancing new export control measures.

A brief midweek rebound on bargain-hunting and optimism after the US government reopened following a 43-day shutdown proved short -lived as caution returned in the absence of firm catalysts. The week closed with a sharp sell-off on Friday, with the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) falling 2.49% as political developments and corruption allegations deepened risk aversion and further undermined already fragile sentiment.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the market to continue trending lower as investors navigate ongoing political uncertainties surrounding flood-control projects, lackluster 3Q 2025 earnings, and the Philippine peso again hovering near record lows. With no major economic data releases ahead and limited catalysts, sentiment is likely to stay cautious, even as selective bargain-hunting emerges. Global factors may also add pressure as hawkish US Fed commentary tempers earlier dovish expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 55% probability to another Fed rate cut in December 2025, down from 92% in mid-October, marking a notable shift amid renewed inflation concerns.

Resistance: 6,000

Support: 5,700 / 5,800

ANALYSIS

The PSEi fell 3.04% w/w to 5,584.35, decisively breaking below the 5,700 support level. Price action remains bearish, with the index trading below all key moving averages, while the RSI shows momentum weakening and approaching oversold territory. Holding above the 5,500 psychological level and reclaiming the 5,800-6,000 range could open the door for a potential trend reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below 5,500 may lead the index toward the next support at 5,300, with a deeper slide possible below 5,000.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Megaworld Corp. (MEG) BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 2.80

MEG remains bearish, with momentum weakening. The RSI is approaching oversold levels, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line. Weakness across the property sector and broader market sentiment have also weighed on the stock. Accumulating MEG once it breaks above the 100-day MA around PHP 2.00 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 2.20 and set stop loss limits below PHP 1.84.

RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 8.40

RCR has been on a downtrend for the past two months, falling by 14% to PHP 7.20. The stock trades below key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day) indicating weakness. Meanwhile, the stock is now oversold, with its RSI at ~43 signaling a potential rebound. Likewise, the MACD showing signs of stabilization, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Furthermore, RCR is showing signs of consolidation at PHP 7.15 to PHP 7.35 price levels, which may indicate a potential rally. Accumulating RCR at current levels is advisable. Take profits around PHP 8.14 and set stop loss limits below PHP 7.03.

International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICT) | BUY ON PULLBACK | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 622.49

ICT has reached another all-time high after breaking above its PHP 560.49 resistance level. The stock is trading above all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200- day), reinforcing a long-term bullish outlook. However, with RSI nearing overbought territory, ICT may be due for a short-term pullback. Accumulating ICT once it pulls back around the PHP 530 level is advisable. Take profits around PHP 583 and set stop loss limits at PHP 503.50.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Cash Remittances year-on-year (y/y) for September 2025 on Monday, November 17, 2025 (previous: 3.2%)

2. US Initial Jobless Claims as of November 15, 2025, on Thursday, November 20, 2025

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)