Peso rises vs dollar before inflation, GDP data

The peso rose against the dollar on Monday after mostly trading sideways as the market stayed cautious before the release of key economic data this week.

The local unit climbed by six centavos to close at PHP 58.79 versus the greenback from its PHP 58.85 finish on Thursday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed. The market was closed for a holiday on Friday.

The peso opened Monday’s session stronger at PHP 58.80 versus the dollar. Its intraday high was at PHP 58.69, while its weakest showing was at PHP 58.83 against the greenback.

Dollars traded fell to USD 1.33 billion from USD 2.23 billion on Thursday.

“The peso appreciated amid expectations of an uptick in Philippine inflation,” a trader said in a Viber message.

The peso was broadly stable before the release of Philippine inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) data this week, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for the October consumer price index (CPI), within the central bank’s 1.4-2.2% forecast for the month.

If realized, this would be up slightly from the 1.7% clip in September but slower than the 2.3% seen in the same month last year. This would also be the fastest print in eight months or since the 2.1% logged in February.

Despite this, it would mark the eighth month in a row that inflation was below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ annual 2-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release October CPI data on Wednesday (Nov. 5) and the third-quarter GDP report on Friday (Nov. 7).

Spending over the long weekend also helped support the peso, Mr. Ricafort added.

“Furthermore, Oct. 29 was last day of the offering for the PHP 34.3-billion Maynilad Water Services, Inc. initial public offering (IPO), so some of the foreign investors are more than happy to sell near the record high for their US dollars to pesos to settle their IPO purchase ahead of the listing date at the Philippine Stock Exchange on Nov. 7, 2025,” he said.

The peso hit a new record low of PHP 59.13 against the greenback on Oct. 28.

For Tuesday, the peso may continue to rise on optimism before the GDP report, the trader said.

Both the trader and Mr. Ricafort expect the peso to move between PHP 58.65 and PHP 58.90 per dollar on Tuesday. — A.M.C. Sy