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Forecast Update: A toss-up between a dovish and neutral Fed
The Fed will soon undergo a change of hands. Here are Metrobank’s base case and alternative economic forecasts
By Metrobank Research
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US President Donald Trump’s bias toward lower US interest rates points to a more dovish successor to US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in 2026.
Metrobank’s base case now anticipates a more dovish Fed by mid next year, prioritizing a robust labor market over inflation targets. We have already seen one of the previously hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) turn dovish.
Amid an anticipated dovish Fed along with other factors from geopolitics to rice inflation swings, Metrobank has revised economic forecasts for this year and the next. We also unveil our 2027 forecasts.