Stock Market Weekly: Bracing for rising oil prices 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended slightly lower after a week of consolidation, dropping by 0.87% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 6,339.77 (-55.82 points). Investors remained cautious as the Israel-Iran conflict drove oil prices higher and stoked inflation fears.

The US Federal Reserve maintained rates at 4.25-4.50%, citing inflation risks and geopolitical concerns, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut the RRP rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% amid lower inflation forecasts. Despite the dovish stance from the BSP, foreign outflows and the FTSE rebalancing drove late-week selling pressure.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, geopolitical tensions have escalated further with the US striking Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran. Fuel prices are expected to rise significantly, with diesel increasing by PHP 4.90–5.10/liter and gasoline by PHP 3.20–3.40/liter. A weakening peso and rising oil prices pose inflation risks. However, hopes for another BSP rate cut by year-end may help cushion the downside.

ANALYSIS

The PSEi slipped 0.87% w/w to 6,339.77 (-55.82 points). The index is consolidating just below the 6,400 resistance level. A breakout above 6,400 could confirm a bullish trend, while failure may trigger a retest of the 6,300 support. Investors should watch for a decisive breakout to confirm momentum.

Resistance: 6,400 / 6,600

Support: 6,000 / 6,200

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 9.00

WLCON has broken out of a double bottom and is now trading above its 100-day moving average (MA). Though RSI nears overbought levels, MACD remains bullish. Entering at current levels could offer attractive upside. Take profits at PHP 9.10 and set stop loss limits below PHP 7.20.

RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 8.00

RCR is on an uptrend above all major MAs, though it recently faced resistance near its 52-week high of PHP 7.06. We suggest accumulating on pullbacks to PHP 6.75–7.00. Take profits at PHP 7.90, with the stop loss at PHP 6.32.

Monde Nissin Corp. (MONDE) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 10.00

MONDE is consolidating between its 20-day and 100-day MAs, with RSI in neutral territory. Price recently broke above its 50-day MA at PHP 7.24 with strong volume. Entering at current levels is advisable. Take profits at PHP 8.30 and set stop loss below PHP 6.60.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Flash for June 2025 on Monday, June 23, 2025 (previous: 52; estimates: 51.2)

2. US Final GDP Growth quarter-on-quarter for 1Q 2025 on Thursday, June 26, 2025 (previous: 2.4%; estimates: -0.2%)

3. PH Budget Balance for May 2025 on Thursday, June 26, 2025 (previous: PHP 67.3 billion)

4. PH Balance of Trade for May 2025 on Friday, June 27, 2025 (previous: -USD 3.495 billion)

5. PH Imports and Exports year-on-year for May 2025 on Friday, June 27, 2025