PSEi may hit 7,000 by yearend amid tariff concern

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could reach the 7,000 level by yearend, fueled by investor optimism over expected earnings growth among listed companies, despite uncertainties related to global trade, according to some analysts.

“Despite our expectations that valuations will continue to persist below long-term averages given heightened trade policy and global growth uncertainties, we still think there remains scope for the PSEi to recover back to at least the 7,000 level amid expectations of sustained earnings growth in listed companies,” China Bank Securities Corp. Research Director Rastine Mackie D. Mercado said in an e-mail interview.

“Over the next few weeks, we think that the PSEi could consolidate between 6,300 and 6,600 as it builds a base for its next major move,” he added.

On Friday, the PSEi rose by 0.22% or 14.27 points to close at 6,395.59, while the broader all shares index gained 0.24% or 9.12 points to end at 3,785.31.

Week on week, the PSEi increased by 0.29% or 18.80 points from its 6,376.79 finish on June 5.

DragonFi Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Jarrod Leighton M. Tin said in a Viber message that the PSEi could reach 6,700 by the end of the year.

“My conservative guess is 6,700 yearend. I feel that the worst has already been priced in when the PSEi hit a 52-week low of around 5,800 with Trump’s Liberation Day. Since then, tariffs have significantly come down and trade deals are being made,” he said.

“With the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) having room for two more rate cuts this year as well as a declining trend in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), I feel that the PSEi has ample room for upside,” he added.

Analysts expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the BSP’s policy meeting on Thursday (June 19), as inflation slowed to 1.3% in May from 1.4% in April amid lower utility costs.

BDO Capital & Investment Corp. President Eduardo V. Francisco said in an interview that the PSEi could “realistically” reach 6,600 to 6,700 this year.

“It will go sideways. The underlying [factor] is the global concerns,” he said.

“While the Trump tariffs are still there, unless there’s a resolution, I don’t think it will change significantly. I don’t think it will reach 7,000 unless the US resolves its dispute with China,” he added.

BPI Securities Corp. said in a statement that the PSEi could settle at 7,300 by end-2025, lower than its initial forecast of 7,600, due to supply shocks caused by the ongoing trade war.

“Global economic uncertainties arising from US tariff measures continue to weigh on investor confidence. The local market also faced an uphill climb following weaker-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product results and a lackluster corporate earnings season,” it said.

Mr. Mercado said investors should monitor consumer and banking stocks amid slowing inflation.

“We think that the consumer and banking sectors could lead growth given expectations of continued consumption recovery amid stable and low inflation and improving credit demand as policy rates continue to ease,” he said.

BPI Securities said its top picks include Ayala Corp. and SM Investments Corp., which may benefit from a rebound in consumption and spending. It also cited Century Pacific Food, Inc. and Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. as major players in expanding markets with “dynamic growth strategies.”

Other recommended stocks for dividend-yield-focused investors include Manila Water Company, Inc., Puregold Price Club, Inc., and RL Commercial REIT, Inc. – Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, Reporter