Stock Market Weekly: Slight rebound up ahead

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed the week on a softer footing, down 1.12% week-on-week (w/w) or by 71.57 points to 6,341.53, weighed down by global trade worries, portfolio rebalancing, and cautious market sentiment. The index opened the week in the red, tracking regional weakness and trade-related jitters, with limited directional drivers as markets awaited fresh catalysts.

A mid-week bounce driven by a strong US consumer confidence print and a temporary postponement of the US-EU tariff hike proved short-lived, as profit-taking set in on Thursday ahead of the MSCI rebalancing. The rebalancing event weighed heavily on Friday, triggering broad-based risk trimming and PHP 15.3 billion in net foreign outflows, largely attributed to a sizeable Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc., (RRHI) block.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT

We expect a slight rebound in the PSEi this shortened trading week, supported by the passage of the Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act (CMEPA). The latter lowers the stock transaction tax to 0.1% (from 0.6%), which is a structural tailwind for market activity. A softer inflation print may also offer additional support, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projecting May inflation to settle between 0.9–1.7%, reflecting improved supply conditions and easing oil prices. However, external risks remain, as US trade policy developments—including an ongoing court appeal on tariffs, proposed steel tariff hikes, and ongoing tensions with China—may introduce volatility.

Resistance: 6,400 / 6,600

Support: 6,200 / 6,000

ANALYSIS

The PSEi slipped 1.12% w/w to 6,341.53 (-71.57 points), failing to reclaim the 6,400 level and closing below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages (MA). With the index now struggling to break past the 6,400 resistance, a retest of the 6,200 support remains possible, potentially offering an attractive re-entry opportunity. Key support levels are set at 6,000 and 6,200, while resistance levels are at 6,400 and 6,600.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Apex Mining Co., Inc. (APX) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: N/A

In terms of price action, APX is currently in a strong bullish phase, supported by healthy trading volume. This momentum is expected to continue due to positive developments related to the stock’s underlying asset and favorable momentum indicators.

However, the formation of a double top near PHP 7.00 could trigger a short-term price correction, which may provide a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares. Accumulating APX once it pulls back near the 20-day moving average (MA) at PHP 6.40 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 7.30 and set stop-loss limits at PHP 5.88.

Philex Mining Corp. (PX) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 12.40

Technically, PX still presents a bullish outlook, but its momentum is clearly weakening as the 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed below the 20-day MA. Although momentum indicators still suggest upside potential, the price action is notably volatile, trading within a wide range of PHP 5.70 to PHP 7.00.

Fundamentally, we continue to anticipate significant upside. Accumulating on dips is advisable. Accumulating PX once it pulls back near the 20-day MA at PHP 6.30 is ideal. Take profits at PHP 7.23 and set stop-loss limits at PHP 5.80.

Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 18.68

On price action, RLC’s stock price appears to have bottomed out and is currently gaining upward momentum. The stock is trading above key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day), while momentum indicators show bullish signals.

Additionally, volumes are picking up, indicating renewed investor interest. As the June 4, 2025, ex-date approaches, some investors may begin taking profits, which could cause short-term price fluctuations and provide attractive entry points. Accumulating RLC once it pulls back to PHP 13.00 to PHP 12.80 is advisable. Take profits 15% above entry point and set stop-loss limits 8% below.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on June 2, 2025 (previous: 53)

2. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final on June 2, 2025 (estimates: 52.3%; previous: 50.2)

3. PH Inflation Rate year-on-year (y/y) on June 5, 2025 (previous: 1.4%)

4. PH Unemployment Rate on June 6, 2025 (previous: 3.9%)

5. PH Industrial Production y/y on June 6, 2025 (previous: 0.4%)

6. PH Consumer Confidence on June 6, 2025 (previous: -11.1)

7. US Non-Farm Payrolls on June 6, 2025 (estimates: 130K; previous: 177K)

8. US Unemployment Rate on June 6, 2025 (estimates: 4.2%; previous: 4.2%)

9. PH Foreign Exchange Reserves on June 6, 2025 (previous: USD 104.6 billion)