Oil prices slide 2% to near 4-year low as US trade conflict fuels recession fears

NEW YORK – Oil prices slid 2% to a near four-year low on Monday on worries US President Donald Trump’s latest trade tariffs could push economies around the world into recession and reduce global demand for energy.

Brent futures fell USD 1.37, or 2.1%, to settle at USD 64.21 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell USD 1.29, or 2.1%, to settle at USD 60.70.

That pushed both crude benchmarks, which fell about 11% last week, to their lowest closes since April 2021.

The session was marked by extreme volatility with intraday prices down more than USD 3 a barrel overnight and up over USD 1 Monday morning after a news report said Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. White House officials quickly denied the report, sending crude prices back into the red.

Confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war has begun, China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the US, said on Friday it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods in retaliation for Trump’s latest tariffs.

Trump responded that the US would impose an additional 50% tariff on China if Beijing does not withdraw its retaliatory tariffs on the US, and said “all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated.”

The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of US goods on Monday in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, a document seen by Reuters showed.

Goldman Sachs forecast a 45% chance of recession in the US over the next 12 months, and made downward revisions to its oil price projections. Citi and Morgan Stanley also cut their Brent outlooks. JPMorgan said it sees a 60% probability of recession in the US and globally.

In addition to growing recession worries, there are growing concerns that the Trump administration’s policies will cause the price of goods to increase.

US Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said some of the recent rise in goods and market-services inflation may be “anticipatory” of the effect of the Trump administration’s policies, adding that it is a priority for the Fed to keep inflation in check.

The Fed and other central banks use higher interest rates to combat inflation. Higher interest rates, however, boost consumer borrowing costs and could cause economic growth and oil demand to decrease.

SUPPLIER REACTION

Saudi Arabia on Sunday announced sharp cuts to crude oil prices for Asian buyers, dropping the price in May to the lowest level in four months.

“It’s a demonstration of the belief that tariffs will hurt oil demand,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. “It goes to show the Saudis, just like every man and his dog, expect the supply and demand balance to be affected and they are forced to cut their official selling prices.”

Adding to the downward momentum, the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.

During the weekend, OPEC+ ministers emphasised the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for over-producers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York, Anna Hirtenstein, and Robert Harvey in London; additional reporting by Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo. Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter, Rod Nickel, and Nick Zieminski)