Banks likely to continue posting record incomes

Philippine banksmay continue to post record-high net incomes this year as robust economic growth is expected to spur lending.

“We expect another record year for banks given the accelerating domestic economy, loan growth pickup and robust expansive balance sheets of the corporate sector,” First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said.

“Banks’ earnings in 2024-2025 are likely to remain robust and could approach or surpass record levels… With consumer and business confidence improving post-pandemic, loan growth has accelerated, particularly in key segments like retail and corporate lending,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said.

Borrowing costs will remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels even with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expected to continue its easing cycle, he said. “This, combined with prudent cost-of-funding strategies, supports higher net income margins.”

“Meanwhile, fee-based income streams, such as credit card fees, transaction fees, and income from wealth management, continue to grow due to increased economic activity and digital banking adoption,” Mr. Rivera added.

“Banks are poised for another solid year in 2024 and moving forward to 2025, with a high likelihood of record net incomes if the economy maintains its growth momentum and external risks remain manageable. However, sustained performance will depend on effective credit risk management and adaptation to a dynamic macroeconomic environment.”

The Philippine banking system’s combined net profit increased by 9.76% to PHP 391.28 billion in 2024 from PHP 356.49 billion in 2023, latest BSP data showed.

Several listed banks have reported that they booked all-time high net incomes in 2024, including Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Bank of the Philippine Islands, China Banking Corp., Security Bank Corp., and East West Banking Corp., driven by higher net interest earnings amid the elevated rate environment.

The BSP last year cut benchmark interest rates by a total of 75 basis points (bps) via three consecutive 25-bp reductions since it began its easing cycle in August, bringing the policy rate to 5.75%.

The Monetary Board, in its first meeting for 2025 held on Feb. 13, kept borrowing costs unchanged in a “prudent” move.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said uncertainty over the trade policy of US President Donald J. Trump and its potential impact on the Philippines led to the decision to keep rates unchanged for now.

Still, the BSP continues to be in an easing cycle, with the pause letting the central bank hedge itself against the risk of policy reversal, he said.

Mr. Remolona added that the central bank will likely continue reducing interest rates by 25 bps at a time, with 50 bps in cuts still on the table this year.

Margins

Mr. Rivera said the expected rate cuts could have mixed effects on Philippine banks, depending on their impact on loan demand, asset quality, and funding costs.

“A 50-bp rate cut will likely be neutral to slightly negative for banks’ margins but supportive of loan demand in consumer and corporate segments. The impact on nonperforming loans (NPL) will depend on how the broader economy responds. If rate cuts successfully spur growth, credit risks could remain manageable,” he said.

“Large firms may take advantage of lower borrowing costs for expansion or refinancing, but their appetite will also depend on business confidence and economic conditions. If uncertainty remains high, demand may be lukewarm,” Mr. Rivera added. “Rate cuts generally support retail loans (auto, housing, personal loans), but household debt levels and inflation will determine how much of this demand materializes.”

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan likewise said that while further monetary easing may compress banks’ margins, it could also boost loan demand, especially from consumers and small and me-dium enterprises.

“Large banks with strong CASA (current and savings account) ratios can better defend margins, while smaller banks may face pressure. NPL risks remain, especially in unsecured consumer credit,” he said.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said lower interest rates may help stabilize banks’ NPLs as it could ease the cost of doing business.

“Hopefully, with the cost of doing business improving and inflation stabilizing, consumption recovery will materialize, thus improving consumer and business sentiment and loan uptake,” Mr. Ravelas added.

Ms. Ulang added that lower interest rates will be positive for banks’ funding costs and can boost their profitability.

“Rates are not going to stay higher for longer… The cost of borrowing will ease and borrowers’ ability to pay will even be better as economic growth accelerates this year.” — Aaron Michael C. Sy