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3Q 2023 PH GDP Report: Upward bias for full-year GDP forecast
GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2023 may have been surprising to many, but we retain our full-year forecast, though with an upward bias.
By Metrobank Research
The Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter expanded at a faster pace of 5.9% year-on-year versus last quarter’s 4.3% growth. This brings the year-to-date average to 5.5%.
This quarter’s GDP print also came out significantly higher than the 4.7% Bloomberg consensus estimate and our forecast of 4.1%. This was driven by a recovery in government spending and positive growth in exports.
The above-consensus 3rd quarter GDP print suggests that overall economic activity has remained resilient despite a high-interest rate environment, which gives the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) room for a rate hike should inflation expectations be problematic this year. The BSP has said that it is ready to tighten further to dispel high inflation expectations.
We retain our 2023 full-year average GDP forecast at 5.5%, but note an upward bias, as domestic consumption is expected to pick up in the holiday season.
Download our full report below for more details.
3Q 2023 PH GDP Report: Upward bias for full-year GDP forecast
Despite the unexpectedly high GDP print for the 3rd quarter of 2023, we retain our full-year forecast of 5.5%.
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