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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
economy-ss-8
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
July 4, 2025 DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Economy 4 MIN READ

2023 PH GDP Report: Yearly growth slows 

The country’s 4th quarter 2023 growth may have exceeded consensus estimates, but not enough to reach the government’s target for the year.

January 31, 2024By Metrobank Research
Traffic jam collapse cars on highway

The Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 4th quarter expanded at a moderate pace of 5.6% year-on-year versus last quarter’s 6.0% growth. This brings the full-year 2023 GDP average to 5.6% (versus the 5.5% Metrobank Research forecast). The latest quarterly GDP print also came out higher than the 5.2% Bloomberg consensus estimate, driven by the recovery in investment spending and surprisingly strong consumer spending.

On a nominal basis, consumer spending appears to be picking up despite high inflation, while both investment spending and imports have picked up as well, indicating that business activity appears to be stirring up already. However, tailwinds will continue to beset the local economy due to the El Nino weather phenomenon and emerging geopolitical conflicts. Some upside is expected as the BSP may cut rates in the second half of the year on the back of lower inflation expectations, giving room for more domestic business activity.

We are retaining our 2024 full-year average GDP forecast at 6.0% on the back of decelerating inflation and interest rate cuts. National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan also cited liberalization reforms that will attract more foreign investments and improve the quality of employment. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation is also expected to speed up the implementation of government programs, while prioritizing tax collection efficiency.

Please see the report below for more details on the latest GDP release and our outlook.

Reports

2023 PH GDP Report: Growth settles below government target 

Growth has slowed in 2023 but we are maintaining our forecast of 6% GDP growth in 2024.

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