Stock Market Weekly: Middle East stalemate weighs on market 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) climbed 1.7% week-on-week (w/w) (+99.53 points) to close at 6,098.21. The week opened on a cautious note as investors waited for Iran to respond to the US ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, April 8, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET.

Risk aversion continued as elevated fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict pushed the Philippines’ March 2026 inflation to a two-year high of 4.1%, above both the government’s 2–4% target and consensus forecasts of 3.8%.

However, sentiment improved mid-week after the US announced a two-week ceasefire just hours before the deadline, driving Brent crude oil lower by 13% day-on-day (d/d) to USD 94.75 per barrel and lifting the local benchmark back above 6,000. While geopolitical tensions remained in focus, selective value buying further helped support the index into the week’s close.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a downward bias. Over the weekend, the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement in Pakistan, with both sides citing stalled talks on Iran’s nuclear program and the scope of US demands.

Whether the breakdown in talks is temporary or structural remains unclear. It will be a key consideration for markets this week. We view that the US’ 15-point and Iran’s 10-point plans have fundamentally incompatible end-states: (i) Iran’s nuclear program: rollback vs. recognition, and (ii) Strait of Hormuz: free passage vs. controlled leverage.

Overall, risk-off sentiment is likely to persist as trust in the ceasefire negotiations remains fragile. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in focus, wherein oil tankers have reportedly begun to exit and US warships have entered for mine-clearing operations.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump declared a blockade on vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, to which Iran has reportedly responded that any military vessel approaching the Strait will be considered a ceasefire breach.

Locally, the downside may nonetheless be capped as fuel prices are expected to drop by PHP 20 per liter for diesel and PHP 4.43 per liter for gasoline, which should provide near-term relief after consecutive weeks of increases. Prior to the declines this week, we note that diesel prices have increased by 112.9% month-on-month (m/m) to PHP 128.80 per liter and gasoline by 65.7% m/m to PHP 94.30 per liter, based on data by Global Petrol Prices as of April 6, 2026.

Resistance: 6,150/6,200

Support: 6,000/5,900

ANALYSIS

The PSEi increased by 1.7% w/w to 6,098.21 (+99.53 points), regaining momentum after crossing above its 20-day moving average (MA). However, the index failed to sustain a breakout above the 100-day MA after testing the level, reflecting cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are improving, with the MACD crossing above the signal line and the RSI also regaining strength, suggesting a potential continuation of the index’s recovery.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 17.70

Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, we continue to favor defensive, consumer-facing names that are likely to remain resilient against the current geopolitical uncertainty. Mall operators remain our preferred retail exposure, supported by expectations of sustained foot traffic, with RLC positioned as a key beneficiary.

RLC’s mall segment contributes the lion’s share of revenues at 41% in full year 2025, with segment revenues growing 10% y/y to PHP 19.67 billion, driven by strong rental income (+11% y/y to PHP 13.9 billion), increased tenant sales, and the launch of new malls.

Accumulate RLC once it breaks above its 20-day MA at PHP 17.25 to confirm bullish momentum. Take profits at PHP 19.00 and set stop loss limits below PHP 16.40.

Megaworld Corp. (MEG) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 2.80

The Philippines’ mall-centric culture, coupled with the ongoing summer season should continue to support foot traffic as consumers turn to malls for leisure and comfort. Against a backdrop of elevated electricity prices, the group also noted that solar energy usage across MEG’s mall portfolio helps mitigate upward pressure on operating expenses, providing an additional buffer to margins.

Accumulate MEG once it breaks above its 100-day MA at PHP 2.12 to confirm bullish momentum. Take profits at PHP 2.33 and set stop loss limits below PHP 2.01.

Manila Electric Co. (MER) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 650.0

Manila Electric Co. (MER) reported a full-year 2025 consolidated net income of PHP 51.1 billion (+11.5% y/y), broadly in line with our estimates and ahead of consensus, while core net income rose 12.0% y/y to PHP 50.6 billion.

Earnings growth outpaced revenue expansion on lower coal and fuel costs, reduced depreciation, and a strong contribution from the power generation segment, which continued to gain share of group earnings.

Accumulate MER once it retraces to its 100-day MA at PHP 593.00. Take profits at PHP 652.30 and set stop loss limits below PHP 563.30.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US Producer Price Index y/y for March 2026 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026 (previous: 3.4%)

2. PH Cash Remittances for February 2026 on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (previous: USD 3.0 billion)

3. US Initial Jobless Claims as of April 11 on Thursday, April 16, 2026 (previous: 219k; estimates: 215k)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)