Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure

HOUSTON – Crude futures climbed higher on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, but analysts were wary the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started.

Brent futures for May settled at USD 103.14 a barrel, up USD 2.68, or 2.67%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April finished at USD 98.71 a barrel, up USD 2.98, or 3.11%.

Prices were down early on Friday on an erroneous report that an Indian-flagged tanker had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since the war began.

Once it became clear the tanker sailed from Oman and had not passed through the strait prices began rising, turning positive before midday.

Brent rose 11.27% from its finish on March 6 while WTI gained 8% from its value a week ago.

As part of efforts to lower fuel prices to consumers in an election year, the US issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

This will affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day’s worth of global output, according to Russia’s presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

“Russian oil was already going to buyers; this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

“The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply.”

OIL TO BE RELEASED FROM STOCKPILES

The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the US Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices.

That plan was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the US contribution.

Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, however, was shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel.

Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country’s oil ports have completely stopped operations.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices, driven higher by the war with Iran. But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said.

Both benchmark prices surged more than 9% on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022.

Goldman Sachs ​predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than USD 100 a barrel ‌in March and USD 85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage ​to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in ​the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the US is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.

In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in ​the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical waterway.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houaton, Anna Hirtenstein in London, Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson in Beijing; Editing by Pooja Desai, Susan Fenton, Aidan Lewis, and Diane Craft)