US yields drift higher in quiet trading session

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields ticked higher on Monday as investors likely sold government bonds to buy new corporate debt, while Federal Reserve officials pointed to uncertainty over the central bank’s ability to cut interest rates if inflation remains sticky.

Investors largely expected a period of consolidation in Treasuries after softening consumer prices last month strengthened views that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates twice this year.

Yields, which move inversely to prices, have mostly declined over the past few weeks on indications that the economy was slowing, partly reversing months of gains caused by fears that inflation was rebounding.

Monday’s yield increases were a sign the market was “trying to find a balance” after the recent bond rally, said Danny Zaid, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, who expects Treasuries to be less volatile over the next few weeks.

The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected volatility in US Treasuries, stood at its lowest since the end of March.

“It’s very quiet … I think the selling probably has more to do with new issue deals announced this morning,” said Tony Farren, managing director at Mischler Financial Group, referring to a slate of new corporate bond sales announced on Monday.

With no US economic data releases on both Monday and Tuesday, Fed officials’ remarks took center stage ahead of Wednesday’s publication of minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy meting, which may provide more insight on the central bank’s views on the path of interest rates.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an interview on Monday that “it will take a while” for the Fed to be confident that inflation is on track back to the central bank’s 2% goal.

Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr struck a similar tone, saying that inflation data in the first months of this year has been disappointing, which left the central bank short of the evidence it needs to ease monetary policy.

“We will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue its work,” Barr said.

Separately, Fed Vice Chairman Phillip Jefferson said he was cautiously optimistic the central bank could continue to battle inflation while permitting the economy to grow.

Traders of futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate on Monday saw a total of about 42 basis points of interest rate cuts this year, down from over 50 basis points in the aftermath of data last week showing US consumer price inflation cooled in April.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last seen at 4.437%, nearly two basis points higher than Friday. Two-year yields, which tend to more closely reflect monetary policy expectations, were last at 4.837%, up about one basis point.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia)