Gold falls over 1% on firm dollar, reduced rate cut bets

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations of a US interest rate cut next month, as investors awaited delayed economic data this week that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Spot gold was down 1.5% at USD 4,019.12 per ounce, as of 03:13 p.m. ET (20:13 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% lower at USD 4,074.5 per ounce.

The dollar index inched higher, making dollar-priced bullion expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market is seeing “some back and forth choppy action ahead of what is expected to be a release of a deluge of economic data now that the US government has reopened,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“Right now, there’s a lesser expectation for additional Fed rate cuts, which has dented optimism for gold.”

This week’s calendar includes September jobs data on Thursday and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, where it cut rates by 25 basis points, on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of Fed policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance on rate cuts for the central bank’s next meeting in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 41% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the US central bank needs to “proceed slowly” with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation.

Safe-haven gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Scotiabank analysts estimate gold prices at USD 3,800/oz for 2026, compared with USD 3,450/oz this year, citing uncertain economic conditions and an eventual decline in real interest rates.

Elsewhere, spot silver dropped 1.2% to USD 49.94 per ounce, platinum fell nearly 1% to USD 1,526.45, and palladium dipped 0.4% to USD 1,379.02.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)