Peso GS Weekly: Geopolitics drive a volatile curve

What happened last week

At the start of the week, local Peso Government Securities (GS) markets reopened to a risk‑off backdrop following the Holy Week break, as renewed US–Iran tensions lifted oil prices and pressured sentiment. Trading interest gravitated toward the front end, with the 3‑year sector leading activity as yields repriced higher before finding support. The belly also saw healthy two‑way flows, while participants remained cautious further out the curve ahead of fresh supply and key inflation data.

By midweek, data showing domestic inflation in March at a faster rate than analysts’ consensus failed to disrupt trading, as market players had priced in an accelerating consumer price rise. A dual‑tranche Treasury auction saw solid take‑up in the 3‑year tenor, while the 8‑year pape