Peso steady ahead of US CPI

The peso was steady against the dollar on Tuesday due to market caution ahead of the release of the US consumer inflation report for October.

The peso opened Tuesday’s session at PHP 56.04 against the dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 56.02, while its weakest showing was at PHP 56.14 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged rose to USD 1.43 billion on Tuesday from $1.18 billion on Monday.

The peso was unmoved on Tuesday as the US consumer price index (CPI) for October is expected to ease, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

“The peso closed unchanged as market participants remained cautious ahead of the US consumer inflation report,” a trader likewise said in an e-mail.

Mr. Ricafort added that the peso was unmoved amid a generally weaker dollar and easing US Treasury yields.

This was offset by higher global crude oil prices, he added.

The peso was also supported by the seasonal increase in remittances and hawkish signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Mr. Ricafort said.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that 15 out of 18 analysts expect the Monetary Board to maintain the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate at a 16-year high of 6.5%.

Meanwhile, the three remaining economists said the Monetary Board might hike policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.75% at the Nov. 16 meeting.

The Monetary Board implemented an off-cycle 25-bp rate hike on Oct. 26, ahead of its scheduled meeting. It has raised interest rates by 450 bps since May 2022 to temper inflation.

For Wednesday, the trader said the peso could strengthen against the dollar ahead of a likely softer US producer inflation report.

Both the trader and Mr. Ricafort expect the peso to move between PHP 55.95 and PHP 56.15 per dollar on Wednesday. — Aaron Michael C. Sy