Dollar eases ahead of US payrolls test

NEW YORK – The US dollar eased against most major currencies on Thursday in choppy trading as investors braced for Friday’s US payrolls report, which could shape the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The dollar has come under pressure in recent sessions as signs of slowing growth in the US economy have lifted the chances of the Fed cutting rates with more urgency.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts in a nod to concern over a softening in the labor market.

Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as layoffs remained low.

The report helped allay fears that the labor market was deteriorating, after data released in the previous session showed US private jobs growth hitting a 3-1/2-years low in August.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect an increase of 165,000 US jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in July.

“There’s this looming sense that a downturn in the economy is coming, but these latest numbers don’t show that,” Adam Button, chief currency analyst, at Forexlive in Toronto, said.

“I think the market is flip-flopping between 25 and 50 basis points on every data point,” Button said.

Markets are pricing in a 59% chance of a 25 basis points cut when the Fed meets on Sept. 17 and 18, with a 41% probability of a 50 bps cut, the CME FedWatch tool showed. In all, some 100 bps of cuts are priced for the year.

The euro was 0.2% higher against the dollar at USD 1.1106, a one-week high. The Dollar Index, which measures the US currency’s strength against six major peers, was 0.2% lower at 101.08.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.3% to 143.35 yen, a one-month low. Safe haven demand and expectations for imminent rate hikes from the Bank of Japan have helped lift the Japanese currency in recent sessions.

The options market shows traders are preparing for potentially big moves in currencies on Friday. Overnight implied options volatility – a measure of demand for protection – is at its highest since the banking crisis of March 2023 for the euro and at its highest in a year for the yen.

The pound was 0.2% higher at USD 1.31715 on Thursday. The Bank of England meets in two weeks to set monetary policy. Right now, the derivatives market shows traders see very little chance of a rate cut this month, but a quarter-point cut is fully priced in for November.

The Australian dollar reversed earlier losses to trade up 0.1% on the day, drawing support from a still-hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia.

With investors avoiding riskier assets, cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. Bitcoin fell 2.6% to USD 56,510 and ether slipped about 2.8% to USD 2,387.

(Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Alison Williams, Christina Fincher, and Jonathan Oatis)