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August Economic Updates: Resilience amid global uncertainties
Metrobank adjusts growth forecast upward, expects monetary easing and currency fluctuations.
By Metrobank Research
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The Philippine economy grew by a robust 6.3% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter of 2024. Following the higher-than-expected growth in the second quarter and the upward revision in the first quarter growth, we have nudged up our full-year growth forecast to 5.8% YoY from the previous 5.7%.
July headline inflation surprised on the upside as it accelerated to 4.4% YoY from the 3.7% YoY recorded in June. With year-to-date average inflation at 3.7%, we maintain our latest full-year (FY) 2024 inflation forecast of 3.3%. Full year inflation in 2025 is also projected at 3.1%.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has finally begun its monetary easing cycle last August 15 as it reduced its target reverse repurchase rate (RRP) by 25 basis points (bps) down to 6.25%. We expect a total of 75 bps