Stock Market Weekly: No signs of letting up

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The index slipped 0.67% week-on-week (w/w), ending at 6,018.62 (-40.32 points), as investors remained risk-averse amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Growing geopolitical tensions intensified concerns over global inflation and growth prospects, keeping market sentiment subdued.

Sustained air strikes on critical energy infrastructure pushed global oil benchmarks higher, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent hovering around the USD100/barrel mark. Additionally, the peso’s slide to a record low of 60.34 against US dollar further amplified the risk-off mood. Meanwhile, rebalancing activities linked to the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) provided some support toward the end of the week.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, the market is likely to stay under pressure as the conflict in the Middle East continues to intensify. Over the weekend, reports circulated that Iran launched missiles towards a US base in the Indian Ocean, raising concerns over Iran’s capabilities to potentially hit European domains. Meanwhile, pump prices are poised for another round of increases, with gasoline, diesel, and kerosene expected to rise by PHP16.0-18.0/L, PHP9.0-11.0/L, and PHP15.0-18.0/L, respectively.

Resistance: 6,100/6,150

Support: 5,950/6,000

ANALYSIS

The index declined by -0.67% w/w to 6,018.62, approaching its 6,000 key support level, where a potential rebound could occur. However, with the index still trading below its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), the MACD still below the signal line, and the RSI consolidating near oversold levels, waiting for clearer signs of bullish momentum may be considered.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 28.00

Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) demonstrated robust full year 2025 performance with its net income up 39% year-on-year (y/y) to PHP 39.1 billion, ahead of consensus estimates and ours. Excluding the one-time gain from asset sales, core revenue/ earnings reached PHP 178.9 billion/ PHP 30.6 billion – both higher by +1%/+8% y/y and ahead of our estimates.

Consolidated revenues grew 5% y/y to PHP 190.2 billion underpinned by stable property development contributions, broad-based leasing and hospitality expansion, and one-off gains from the sale of a 50% stake in Alabang Commercial Corporation. The group allocated PHP 92.9 billion in capex for 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, with notable increases in leasing and hospitality projects.

Accumulate ALI once it breaks above its 20-day MA at PHP 19.97 to confirm bullish momentum. Take profits at PHP 21.97 and set stop loss limits below PHP 18.97.

Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SCC) | SELLING ON RALLY | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 27.00

We view the competitive bidding process for the Semirara coal operating contract as a potential risk for SCC, particularly with the entry of heavyweight competitors associated with business titans Manuel V. Pangilinan and Ramon Ang. Their participation could intensify the auction and pressure SCC to submit a more aggressive bid through higher royalty commitments or less favorable economic terms, potentially weighing on future profitability and cash flows.

We recommend selling on rallies around PHP 30.50.

China Bank (CBC) | BUY ON SUPPORT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 105.00

We see CBC gradually positioning itself as a credible challenger to the Philippines’ big 3 banks. CBC continues to demonstrate steady growth, with full year 2025 net income rising 13% y/y while operating expenses increased at a slightly slower pace of 12% y/y, reflecting disciplined cost management alongside expansion. CBC has also maintained stable NIMs despite rate cuts in 2025, supported by strong deposit mobilization, with CASA growing 17% y/y, outperforming several peers.

Accumulating on support at the 20-day MA around PHP 68.50 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 75.35 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 65.00.

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)