Peso dips to record as oil surges, fails to hit PHP 60 as BSP intervenes

The Philippine peso slid to a record low against the dollar on Monday, closing at PHP 59.87, as rising oil prices and expectations of tighter US monetary policy weighed on the currency.

Intervention by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) prevented the peso from breaching the PHP 60-a-dollar mark.

Data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed the peso fell 13.5 centavos from Friday’s close of PHP 59.735, which was previously its record low. Year to date, the local currency has weakened by PHP 1.08 or 1.8% from PHP 58.79 at the end of 2025.

The peso opened Monday slightly stronger at PHP 59.71 a dollar, touching an intraday best of PHP 59.70 and low of PHP 59.95. Dollar turnover fell to USD 1.805 billion from USD 2.228 billion on Friday, reflecting cautious trading amid global uncertainty.

“The dollar-peso traded higher, peaking at PHP 59.95 on persistent demand for safe-haven assets due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising oil prices,” a trader said. “BSP intervention limited further dollar rallies.”

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told Bloomberg News the central bank had intervened to defend the peso. “Since the dollar is down, I assume some intervention can push the peso back below PHP 60,” he said

The BSP has said it steps in only to prevent currency depreciation from becoming inflationary.

Market analysts cited multiple factors behind the peso’s weakness, including the escalating war in the Middle East, higher crude oil prices and reduced expectations for US monetary easing.

The peso was also pressured by reduced expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve because of the war, Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.

Traders anticipate continued volatility in the near term. One trader expects the peso to continue its slide on Tuesday to PHP 59.50 to PHP 59.95 a dollar.

Another foresees sideways trading as markets react to potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, projecting a range of PHP 59.70 to PHP 59.95. Mr. Ricafort sees the peso trading at PHP 59.75 to PHP 59.95.

The peso’s decline highlights the sensitivity of the Philippine currency to global geopolitical shocks, energy prices, and shifts in US monetary policy. BSP intervention appears to have temporarily limited losses, but analysts say sustained support may be required if external pressures persist.

Investors are likely to remain cautious, particularly given the uncertainty in oil markets and the potential for further safe-haven flows toward the dollar, which could continue to pressure the peso in the coming sessions. — Aaron Michael C. Sy