Dollar perks up as Fed appears in no rush to cut rates

SINGAPORE – The dollar was off recent lows on Thursday and hanging on to a bounce after minutes from the Federal Reserve showed policymakers did not seem to be in a rush to cut interest rates and that several were open to hikes if inflation proved sticky.

US yields were higher, and the dollar’s overnight gains against the euro and yen were consolidated in early-morning trade in Asia, holding the euro below USD 1.18.

The Aussie dollar was trading at USD 0.7045 ahead of employment data, where strong numbers could ramp up expectations for future rate hikes.

The New Zealand dollar was smarting after notching its steepest percentage drop since last April’s tariff blitz, after the central bank took a cautious line about future interest rate hikes, undershooting market expectations.

The kiwi had dropped nearly 1.4% overnight and was just under USD 0.60 in morning trade. The euro hovered at USD 1.1788, having also taken a knock on a report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde plans on leaving before her term ends in October next year. Sterling GBP= sat at USD 1.3497.

The Fed minutes showed policymakers divided over where to take US rates and suggested that the next chairman, due to start in May, will have a hard time pushing through rate cuts.

Several policymakers are expecting productivity gains to dampen inflation, the minutes said, but “most participants” cautioned progress may be slow and uneven. Several even indicated hikes are possible if inflation stays above target.

“This suggests there isn’t a great deal of urgency to cut rates again, at least not until after current chair (Jerome) Powell’s term ends in May,” said Peter Dragicevich, Asia-Pacific currency strategist at Corpay.

Markets are looking ahead to global purchasing managers’ index figures and US gross domestic product data, due on Friday.

YEN DROPS AS US INVESTMENT SPEND BEGINS

The yen took a knock on the stronger dollar overnight, and as the Trump administration announced projects valued at USD 36 billion as the first investments under Japan’s promised USD 550 billion US investment pledge.

It was down 1% overnight and steady at 154.78 to the dollar on Thursday, a retreat from the 152 level that it had tested last week in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide electoral victory.

The yen has been sliding for years on a combination of low local interest rates and concern about Japan’s budget outlook, but has lately found support on hopes for economic growth.

“Direct Japanese investment into the US will be a key watch factor this year, and one which adds to the very mixed picture on USD/JPY,” said Chris Turner, global head of research at ING.

“The question for FX markets this year is whether this investment proves a supportive dollar flow or something like Japan’s FX reserves are used to guarantee new USD loans and avoid pressure on the yen. The latter seems to be the preferred outcome for Tokyo.”

Holidays for Hong Kong, China and Taiwan lightened Asia trade and the yuan CNH= was steady at 6.89 to the dollar in offshore trade.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)